In the region, there are pivotal developments intersecting at one point, and what's more, all of these are closely relevant to Türkiye. The terrorist attacks in which we lost 12 soldiers in Northern Iraq are related to these developments. I will explain the reasons with information I obtained from various sources, some explicit and some confidential. However, let's go through them step by step.
What's happening in Gaza is in line with the U.S. plan. The technocrat government for Palestine proposed by Egypt last week is part of this plan (we've written about how the U.S. wants to change the Abbas and Netanyahu governments and other details of the plan. See "They Will Send Netanyahu Away and Wash Their Hands," December 8). Abbas rejected this offer. However, we can say that Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf will exert pressure for this plan.
WASHINGTON-TEHRAN AGREEMENT DRAFT
The U.S. and Gulf countries (and Jordan) gave Israel a carte blanche to eliminate Hamas, but they do not want it to go further. However, Netanyahu has not abandoned his initial goal. He is still trying to eliminate Hamas, expel Palestinians from Gaza, and then extend the conflict to Lebanon and Syria. In this context, two significant developments occurred: the Israeli Defense Minister announced that they are in a multifront war, and in Damascus, General Musavi, who leads Iran's operations in Syria, was killed in an Israeli attack. Iran vowed revenge. Will it take revenge? Not in the near future.
Because there is a process with the U.S. Washington reaped the benefits of talking with Iran in Gaza. In a process where Israel stumbled, it managed to keep Iran and its proxy forces out of the process. Now it plans to continue this. Let's look at the details of the Washington-Tehran agreement draft compiled from open sources.
1. The U.S. will resume indirect talks with Iran. While doing this, it aims to continue military pressure on Tehran.
2. Israel wants Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of Lebanon. The U.S. will take the proposal for Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River to Iran for it to be achieved without conflict.
3. The U.S. adopts a low-profile stance on the Houthis targeting ships near Yemen. It wants to persuade Iran through China to stop these attacks. (Joe Biden removed the Houthis from the terrorism list in 2021. He is resisting the pressure to put them back on.)
CORRIDOR WARS 1: YEMEN
It is unclear why Iran, which agreed with the U.S. not to spread the conflict in Gaza, mobilized its proxy forces in Yemen (there is also an agreement between the two on the use of the PKK). Why did it move the Houthis instead of Hezbollah?
There are several explanations. First, Iran wants to show its domestic audience that it is doing something about Gaza, so it introduces a distant actor that will not directly interfere in the conflict. Second, it creates the impression that it is in conflict with the U.S., suppressing internal dissenting voices. Third, it sends a message that it can turn the region into a ring of fire if attacked. Are all of these valid? Perhaps. Why is it targeting merchant ships?
A friend told me in the early days of the Gaza massacre that the real project was to evacuate Gaza and build a large port to transport Asian goods to Europe in the region. He connected these events to the Indian-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was said to be developed as an alternative to China's Belt and Road project and, at the same time, cut the Türkiye-Iraq Development Road. The project, starting from India, extended to Europe via Israel.
This idea seemed exaggerated to me then, and it still does. However, the process seems to be evolving in that direction, even if it was not the initial target. Could Iran be targeting ships following the trade route and corridor that bypasses itself? Is the U.S. preparing to invite India to the international coalition against the Houthis in the coming days? All of these are debatable.
CORRIDOR WARS 2: IRAQ
A critical security summit was held in Ankara on December 19. The Foreign Ministers, Defense Ministers, and intelligence chiefs of Türkiye and Iraq came together. Primarily, two issues were discussed. First, terrorism. The Iraqi side also wants the organization to be eliminated from its own territory. According to the information I received, some models are being worked on for the first time on how Iraq will play a role in this process. It is said that Iraq has made a clear commitment to removing the PKK from Iraqi territory during this process.
Second, the Development Road Project. As my source said, this project, expected to cost $17 billion, is actually a security project. It seems unlikely that this project will be implemented before stability and security are established in Iraq. So, if the project is implemented, it will be difficult for the PKK to sustain itself in Iraq. On the other hand, Iran also feels left out of the corridor. The U.S. sees the Development Road as a competitor to the IMEC project.
That's why our military bases in Northern Iraq were attacked just after this critical summit in Ankara. I'm not saying this is the only reason. The love letters sent between the PKK and Israel, the shield provided by the U.S. to the organization, Iran's covert relations are well known to everyone. But this side of the picture is also there, and I wanted to show it to you.
