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The unknown aspects of the Idlib victory

The Assad regime declared that they welcome the Idlib agreement reached by Turkey and Russia. But it shouldn’t be comprehended in that way. Actually, what they want to say is, “We are keeping a stiff upper lip.”

If you ask why, it is because the regime is the biggest loser in the agreement. Once upon a time, they were talking about recapturing the whole of Syria and even Hatay, but now are in such a position where they have to retreat to the borders designated by Turkey and Russia.

The “hasty” and the “hurried” among us can now go into mourning.

If you are wondering why: the theory suggesting that Ankara enter into a dialogue with Assad collapsed once again with the Idlib agreement.

The equation is quite simple here: when you negotiate with Russians and reach an agreement with them you also get the Syrian regime to do whatever you want them to do.

Those who know the circumstances on the field well say that the regime does not have a chance on the ground against opposition forces.

When I say the opposition, I refer to the National Front for Liberation (NFL) whose numbers are about 60,000 now and who are acting together with Turkey.

Will the buffer zone agreement be difficult for Turkey?

President Erdogan said, “There are 12 articles in the signed agreement. This is a step toward peace beyond our border.”

We already know that the general framework of the agreement is about establishing a 15 to 20-kilometer-long buffer zone and mobile patrol groups of Turkish units and Russian military police that monitor it.

At this point, a question asked by many comes to mind: how will Turkey solve the radical groups problem, namely the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham problem?

Will there be an encounter with this group?

Will there be any conflict with them?

Or will they be moved out of the region by buses?

When we look at the context of the issue, indicators show that this issue is not going to cause complications.

Of course, methods like putting these groups on buses and getting them out will not be implemented.

Instead, “setting the appropriate conditions” method is on the agenda.

Since the regime forces will be kept out of Idlib with the buffer zone, the main excuse for these groups will be gone.

I understand that, in this context, there isn’t any difficult factor for Turkey to implement the agreement.

Iran’s withdrawal served Turkey’s interests

It would be useful to look at the other side of the medallion, in other words Russia and Iran’s position, to understand the importance of the Idlib agreement.

The surprising part of the agreement was Iran’s declaration that they will not be involved in the Idlib issue and that they see this as a matter to be resolved between Turkey and Russia.

There are two fundamental reasons for this:

Firstly, Iran is already suffering from serious internal problems. It is facing another threat of sanctions coming in November that also includes oil sanctions.

Secondly, Tehran does not want to contradict with Turkey in such a time. Because, it wants Turkey on its side against these sanctions.

Then, Iran getting out of the Idlib equation seriously contributed to the agreement resulting in Turkey’s favor.

Our impression on Russia is as follows:

When it was revealed in August that the Idlib issue is an imposition of Moscow and Damascus, the opposition did not want to wave the white flag.

The possibility of the war in Idlib spreading to Aleppo, Hama and other parts of Syria tied Russia’s hands. Thereupon, an agreement was reached after President Erdogan did not make any concessions of his persistent stance.

In the Idlib issue, Turkey not only showed its capability to influence regional dynamics but also demonstrated that it is an actor making global impacts.

To understand this, it would be enough to recall what happened on the night an agreement was reached in Sochi.

The international actors who have been trying to overturn the Syria table Turkey and Russia established for the last two years and have been numerously disappointed, strongly reacted through Israel to the Sochi agreement.

But it turned out that this strong reaction was not enough to overturn the table.

Furthermore, those who are really trying to find a solution to the Syrian civil war, who are trying to prevent great massacres, and those who are trying to extend this war and increase death and destruction was once again seen during the Idlib process.

#Syria
#US
#Russia
#Idlib
#Turkey
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