Over the past year, we have witnessed a series of events, from Erdogan's notorious outburst at Davos to Turkey's disinvitation of Israel from a NATO air exercise, that have led to claims that Turkish-Israeli relations are declining. Often, this assertion is made in tandem with charges that Turkey is turning its face to the East, away from the West. But, when one considers the state of Turkish-Israeli relations, one undoubtedly will encounter the US, as it considers both countries to be important allies and is home to a large Jewish Diaspora.
The US is known for its powerful lobby system, particularly the oft-discussed Jewish organizations, which has been the subject of much discussion in recent years. Political groups such as AIPAC and the ADL, some of the most powerful of their ilk, have long commanded the attention of US politicians and policy makers. These organizations, particularly AIPAC, tend to toe a right-wing line in staunch support of Israel. This has been the status quo for many years in Washington. However, a new Jewish organization, J Street, was established in 2007 to counterbalance AIPAC and has quickly come to the fore, finding itself holding a seat at the negotiating table along with AIPAC and other established institutions. Although this might seem old-hat, what makes J Street special is that it promotes a balanced Middle East policy under its motto “pro-Israel, pro-peace”.
This is big news for many reasons and could affect Turkey in several ways. First of all, such an organization is unprecedented. In Washington, unconditional and unwavering support for Israel's policies had become almost guaranteed. Second, J Street is focused on a comprehensive peace in the region and promotes a freeze on settlement construction as well as a two-state solution. These policies have been enough for the Israeli government and the traditional Israel lobby to give J Street the cold shoulder. The Israeli ambassador boycotted J Street's inaugural conference in October, although the Jordanian ambassador came and delivered an address, and the keynote speaker was National Security Advisor James Jones.
What is the effect of lobby groups on Turkish-Israeli relations?
Turkish-Israeli relations go back to the foundation of the Jewish state in 1948, when Turkey was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize Israel. The two states have been partners in the region, and some scholars argue that Turkey and Israel are the most similar to each other in the Middle East, in terms of their relations with the West. Turkish-Israeli relations hit a highpoint after the 1997 Turkish “post-modern coup”, and the two countries signed billions of dollars in military contracts. But with the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002, the extreme right in Israel and the American neocons found themselves in a panic over fears that the AKP was secretly Islamist, anti-US, and anti-Israel. The extreme right wing of both countries teamed up and launched a smear campaign against the AKP, branding them as anti-Semitic. Despite this rocky start, however, Turkish-Israeli relations continued to prosper, and the annual volume of economic relations is over $10 billion.
The AKP has focused on promoting its plan for regional integration and stability, or the “zero problems with neighbors” policy, which of course encompasses the Israeli-Palestinian issue, as well as problems between Israel and its neighbors, especially Syria. Turkey played the role of moderator between Syria and Israel and came close to brokering a deal regarding the Golan Heights, but unfortunately, the agreement was severely disrupted by last year's Gaza war. Turkey, who had hosted Israeli Prime Minister Olmert only two days before the start of the war yet was not informed of Israel's plans, strongly condemned Israel's actions in Gaza. The Gaza war has had a lingering impact on Turkish-Israeli relations and was cited as the instigating force behind both the Davos incident and this fall's NATO air exercise disinvitation.
Turkish-Israeli relations cannot improve with Israel's current policies, which is where the US and its new J Street lobby enter the picture. Many believe that Israel might curb its actions if the US were to take a more assertive, less supportive stance. But this is implausible at best, due to the powerful influence of the Jewish lobbies. One example of this is the UN's Goldstone Report, which condemned Israeli actions in Gaza. It was targeted by a House Resolution against the Report's findings, and several pro-Israel members of congress signed the Resolution (which was of course supported by AIPAC). J Street, however, came out strongly in support of the Report and pushed Congress to accept it.
Another area in which Turkey, Israel, and the US lobbies collide is the Armenian issue. In the past, Jewish organizations often lobbied on Turkey's behalf against the Armenian Diaspora's interest groups, since Turkey was a staunch friend to Israel (especially militarily).Perhaps unsurprisingly, J Street seems to avoid reference to the Armenian issue, and instead limits its focus to issues that are directly related to American policy toward Israel and the Middle East and that support peace in the region. According to its website, the “J Street PAC does not interview candidates on – and its endorsement should not be read to imply support for their positions on – any other issue.”[i][i] In keeping with this policy, J Street gave financial support to members of congress both for and against the legislation that would label the 1915 events as genocide: Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL/19th) and Rep. Bill Delahunt (D-MA/10th), chairs of the Turkish and Armenian caucuses, respectively, both received campaign contributions from J Street for their dedication to the Middle East peace process.
Thus, as we can see, to better understand the future of the Turkey-Israel-US triangle, perhaps we should take a look at some of the key rising players. J Street's policies, while at times boding well for Turkey, might also have an adverse effect. Its likeminded policies regarding Middle East peace could very well aid Turkey's efforts to obtain regional integration and stability, but whether J Street will stand up for Turkey's interests in Washington remains to be seen.
