Wherever I go in Washington and whoever I talk with, I hear that Congress will certainly pass the Armenian resolution, regardless of possible reactions from all the pertinent bodies and personalities, including President George W. Bush. The Armenian lobby is going to be successful this time around; so my sources tell me. But I also hear the opposite: that the Congress will not give way to the Armenian lobby''s demand in a time the US is in dire need of Turkey''s assistance in a region beset with problems that the US has a huge stake in. As it was the case many times previously, the president will write a letter to the Congress as well as place a call to Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the house, giving a detailed account of Turkey''s importance and asking to postpone the proposed resolution. “Don''t worry,” people in the know say, “The resolution will not pass.”

Now you hear it, now you don''t.

I have never seen the Turks living in the US capital so gloomy. The Armenian resolution is an issue taking up all the energies and efforts of Turkey''s representatives in a country where there are higher objectives to achieve for the benefit of both sides. Turkey can easily adapt itself for a mandate which would be a tremendous help to the US in its endeavor to reach a workable status in the Middle East. Turkey, with its highly respected democratic government, can also show the US how to handle the problem of its constant image deterioration in the eyes of the Muslim world.

I have great doubts about the resolution of historical events with modern political tools. The Armenian resolution will do no good to any of the parties involved, apart from the satisfaction it would bestow to fanatics and bigots. What did happen in 1915 can not be undone with a resolution passed by a third party''s parliament. How can the misery and tribulations of the Armenians who suffered badly during a war which also caused the extinction of the lives of millions of other people be rectified by a simple declaration of parliamentarians who close their ears to the suffering of masses all over the world?

More than 800,000 people have lost their lives in a bloody war declared by the US Congress almost unilaterally and the same Congress will pass a declaration condemning the Armenian losses in a war too distant to remember. What a grave contradiction!

During my extended sojourn in the US capital this time around, I found myself in an unwanted position of attracting interest. Those who follow events relating to Turkey closely in Washington wonder what would happen if the Armenian resolution is accepted by the Congress. What would be the public reaction in Turkey? In which direction will the reactions be channeled? Would the Turkish government stimulate the aggravation or try to allay the public''s outburst?

I answered all these questions positively: Yes, there will be a public uproar if and when the resolution is passed. There will be calls for total boycotts of anything American and officials in Turkey will find it very difficult to convince the people to side with American positions when the necessity arises.

Turkey will lose face, but the Americans will suffer most from the Armenian resolution if it passes through Congress.

Let us assume that the resolution passes -- what will it be achieved by this development? The only change likely to occur is its possible shadow cast over Turkish-US relations. The bilateral relations between the two have never been easy; there have been turbulences along the way, but both countries have managed to remain friends nevertheless. Up until now. With the resolution''s passing, from now on nothing will be the same.

During my stay in Washington, I have consistently been asked the same question: According to opinion polls, the Turkish public is the most anti-American in the world, with only 9 percent showing some sympathy toward the US -- what would it change with one more negative development?

The change will be enormous: the lack of sympathy in Turkey toward the US stems from American involvement in regional problems and will evaporate when the situation changes; with passing of the Armenian resolution by Congress, the Turkish public''s regard for the US will diminish completely. Our feelings, negative or positive, toward the US are powerful; this alone must be a cause of concern for Washington.

Of course the issue between the Turks and the Armenians has to be solved, and solved justly. We, the people of Turkey, will find a way to make amends with the Armenian people in the future. Turkey will extend its hand toward Armenia, using the presence of Turkish citizens of Armenian extraction in Turkey to both countries'' benefit. We feel sorry for all the losses during an unfortunate war which cost us more dearly. We lost not only a large chunk of our compatriots, we also lost our empire.

I expect to see some understanding from the US, in a time when its own empire faces grave difficulties.